2021 Predictions, graded

Back in January, I made some predictions for how this year would go. How did I do? Let’s find out!

1. Prediction: Despite multiple approved vaccines being distributed, fewer than 75% of Americans will be vaccinated for Coronavirus by the end of 2021.
   Result: I’m not surprised that a large portion of this country has taken an ideological stance against vaccination. Currently, 73.9% of Americans have at least 1 dose and 62.0% are fully vaccinated. Verdict: Correct
2. Prediction: No movie will have a domestic opening weekend over $100 million.
   Result: I almost got this one. As expected with the slow vaccination, people were unready to return to cinemas. We went into December with Venom: Let There Be Carnage having the biggest weekend at $90 million. And then Spider-Man: No Way Home made $260 million in its first weekend. Verdict: Wrong
3. Prediction: At least one NFL team will forfeit a post-season game because too many of their players test positive for Coronavirus.
   Result: If I had done some basic research, I would have known that the NFL had contingency plans to delay games. But no teams had outbreaks severe enough to warrant delays. Verdict: Wrong
4. Prediction: The Summer Olympics will be canceled.
   Result: Despite public demand for a cancellation, the Olympics took place as planned. Verdict: Wrong
5. Prediction: The NCAA Men’s Basketball champion will be a 5th seed or lower.
   Result: I make this prediction every year because it’s more exciting than a 1st seed team winning. Although #11 UCLA made it into the Final Four, both finalists were 1st seeds. Verdict: Wrong
6. Prediction: Democrats will win one of the Senate seats in Georgia, leading to a 51–49 majority for Republicans.
   Result: I set this up to be a win-win: either I’d get the prediction right or I would get the outcome that I hoped for. I got the one I hoped for. Verdict: Wrong
7. Prediction: If Democrats win both Senate seats in Georgia, Stephen Breyer will retire in 2021. Otherwise, he will continue to serve on the Supreme Court.
   Result: Despite pressure from Democrats, Justice Breyer is stubbornly clinging to the idea that the Supreme Court is apolitical. Verdict: Wrong
8. Prediction: Justice Clarence Thomas will resign his Supreme Court seat following Joe Biden’s inauguration.
   Result: I had a crazy theory that Chief Justice Roberts would quietly ask the most senior conservative to retire in an effort to maintain the Court’s perceived balance (and his status as the swing vote). Verdict: Wrong
9. Prediction: Neither Overwatch 2 nor Diablo 4 will be fully released in 2021, but Blizzard will announce 2022 release dates for both.
   Verdict: I was almost right about this. Neither game was released but both were expected for 2022. Then we all learned about Blizzard’s dirty secrets. The ensuing chaos has delayed the games beyond 2022. Verdict: Wrong
10. Prediction: Space X will have at least 30 successful Falcon 9 launches, but not more than 40.
    Result: Elon Musk said that he was aiming for 48 launches in 2021, but SpaceX never meets those targets. The actual number of launches was 31. Verdict: Correct