2022 Predictions, graded

Every year, I make predictions for what I think is going to happen. Last year, I got 2 of 10 right. How did I do for 2022?

1. Prediction: There will be at least 3 major coronavirus variants, defined as accounting for over 50% of new cases in a week (in the US).
   Result: Technically, Omicron was the dominant variant for all of 2022, but with multiple subvariants. At least 4 of those met the definition I set. I’m going to claim this as correct, but feel free to disagree.
   Verdict: Correct
2. Prediction: A second booster will be required to maintain effectiveness against coronavirus.
   Result: In retrospect, this should have been pretty obvious, given how most of the vaccines work. Still, I got this right.
   Verdict: Correct
3. Prediction: Republicans will win a majority in both the House and Senate during the midterm elections.
   Result: Of all my predictions this year, this is the one I’m glad to have gotten wrong.
   Verdict: Wrong
4. Prediction: President Joe Biden will announce that he won’t run for reelection in 2024.
   Result: I had assumed that Biden would make the announcement following the midterms so that potential candidates could start planning. I am expecting that we’ll hear some news on this early in 2023.
   Verdict: Wrong
5. Prediction: Justice Stephen Breyer will retire in 2022.
   Result: This happened exactly as I predicted. Breyer retired while Biden still had a supportive Senate.
   Verdict: Correct
6. Prediction: The NCAA Men’s Basketball champion will be a 5th seed or lower.
   Result: I keep hoping for an exciting underdog story, and every year I’m disappointed as a 1st seed wins.
   Verdict: Wrong
7. Prediction: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will have the biggest opening weekend domestic box office gross.
   Result: I expected that following Chadwick Boseman’s death, this would be the biggest movie of the year (just like how The Dark Knight broke the record following Heath Ledger’s death). Unfortunately, the November release probably hurt ticket sales, as the number 1 movie was the May MCU release, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.
   Verdict: Wrong
8. Prediction: SpaceX will have 35–45 successful Falcon launches.
   Result: I was very wrong on this, as SpaceX nearly doubled the number of launches from 2021, finishing at 61.
   Verdict: Wrong
9. Prediction: New Glenn, Blue Origin’s orbital launch vehicle, will not have a successful flight in 2022.
   Result: I was not at all surprised that the first launch was delayed yet again.
   Verdict: Correct
10. Prediction: A former Fortune 500 (in the past 10 years) company will go out of business.
    Result: I made a huge blunder with this prediction. Specifically, how hard it would be to confirm. A bunch of companies filed for bankruptcy in 2022. Some, but not all went out of business. Figuring out which of them have been on the Fortune 500 list in the past 10 years would take a lot more work than I’m willing to spend on this.
    Verdict: Wrong, probably

Final score: 4/10